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Dial down sim speed for longer horizons (monthly/annual/5yr)

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Hourly–weekly: full window in ≤1 wall-second (3600:1 to 604800:1).
Monthly: daily ticks, 30s wall for full window.
Annual: weekly ticks, ~52s wall.
5-year: monthly ticks, ~60s wall.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Claude 2026-07-13 21:55:24 +00:00
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core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md
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@ -26,14 +26,14 @@ different runtime suited to its math.
behaviors emerge from the sim's mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2)
for calibration; respond to Trader queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with
**explicit upper/lower bounds** on every prediction value.
| Horizon | Window | Speed (1s wall =) | Ratio |
|---------|--------|-------------------|-------|
| Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | 1h sim | 3,600:1 |
| Daily | Next 24h | 1d sim | 86,400:1 (3600×24) |
| Weekly | Next 7d | 1w sim | 604,800:1 (3600×24×7) |
| Monthly | Next 30d | 1mo sim | 2,592,000:1 (3600×24×30) |
| Annual | Next 365d | 1yr sim | 31,536,000:1 (3600×24×365) |
| 5-year | Next 1825d | 5yr sim | 157,680,000:1 |
| Horizon | Window | Speed (1s wall =) | Ratio | Wall time for window |
|---------|--------|-------------------|-------|---------------------|
| Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | 1h sim | 3,600:1 | <1s |
| Daily | Next 24h | 1d sim | 86,400:1 | 1s |
| Weekly | Next 7d | 1w sim | 604,800:1 | 1s |
| Monthly | Next 30d | 1d sim | 86,400:1 | 30s |
| Annual | Next 365d | 1w sim | 604,800:1 | ~52s |
| 5-year | Next 1825d | 1mo sim | 2,592,000:1 | ~60s |
- **Does-not:** trade (Traders/Marketplace do); make decisions for traders (it informs, they
decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); skip ticks;
run slower than 360:1.
@ -61,9 +61,10 @@ different runtime suited to its math.
- **L2 (C5):** every prediction output includes **explicit upper and lower bounds** — no
unbounded point estimates. Uncertainty is a first-class value, not an afterthought.
- **L3 (C5):** all sims are **tick-advanced and continuous** — they advance every tick, never
skip. Each time horizon runs at its own speed: **1 wall-second = 1 full window** of that
horizon's sim time. The slowest (hourly) is 3,600:1; daily is 86,400:1; up to 5-year at
~158M:1. No horizon may run slower than its rated speed.
skip. Each time horizon runs at its own rated speed (see §4 table). Hourly through weekly
cover their full window in ≤ 1 wall-second; monthly through 5-year dial down to coarser
ticks (daily/weekly/monthly steps) and take 30–60 wall-seconds for a full window pass.
No horizon may run slower than its rated speed.
- **L4 (C4):** sims are **read-only from traders' perspective** — a query never mutates sim
state. Calibration happens only from Data Feeds (M2).
- **L5 (C4):** each sim type is **independent** — failure in one sim does not cascade to others.