Fix 360:1 semantics: tick-advanced continuous, 1s wall = 1h sim

All sims advance every tick continuously. The 360:1 floor means the
slowest system produces 1 simulated hour per 1 wall-clock second.
Updated hub cadence table and all sub-spec references.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Claude 2026-07-13 21:52:23 +00:00
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6 changed files with 29 additions and 29 deletions

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@ -20,23 +20,23 @@ simulation cores. A query facade accessible to Traders. Each sim type (M3aM3g
different runtime suited to its math. different runtime suited to its math.
## 4. Does / does-not ## 4. Does / does-not
- **Does:** run continuously at **≥ 360:1 speed** (360 simulated seconds per wall-clock second) - **Does:** tick-advance continuously at **≥ 360:1** (1 wall-second = 1 sim-hour minimum)
across **six concurrent time horizons** — tick/hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and across **six concurrent time horizons** — tick/hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and
5-year forecast windows; maintain populations of Pops whose behaviors emerge from the sim's 5-year forecast windows; every tick advances every sim; maintain populations of Pops whose
mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2) for calibration; respond to Trader behaviors emerge from the sim's mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2)
queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with **explicit upper/lower bounds** on for calibration; respond to Trader queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with
every prediction value. **explicit upper/lower bounds** on every prediction value.
| Horizon | Window | Sim cadence at 360:1 | | Horizon | Window | At 360:1 floor (1s wall = 1h sim) |
|---------|--------|---------------------| |---------|--------|-----------------------------------|
| Tickhourly | Next 160 min | Real-time (360 sim-sec/s) | | Tickhourly | Next 160 min | Covered in <1s wall time |
| Daily | Next 24h | 4 sim-minutes per wall-second | | Daily | Next 24h | Covered in 24s wall time |
| Weekly | Next 7d | ~28 sim-minutes per wall-second | | Weekly | Next 7d | Covered in ~168s wall time |
| Monthly | Next 30d | ~2 sim-hours per wall-second | | Monthly | Next 30d | Covered in ~720s wall time |
| Annual | Next 365d | ~1 sim-day per wall-second | | Annual | Next 365d | Covered in ~2.4h wall time |
| 5-year | Next 1825d | ~5 sim-days per wall-second | | 5-year | Next 1825d | Covered in ~12h wall time |
- **Does-not:** trade (Traders/Marketplace do); make decisions for traders (it informs, they - **Does-not:** trade (Traders/Marketplace do); make decisions for traders (it informs, they
decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); run slower decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); skip ticks;
than 360:1. run slower than 360:1.
## 5. Interface contract ## 5. Interface contract
- `query(sim_type: SimType, query: PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction`. - `query(sim_type: SimType, query: PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction`.
@ -60,9 +60,9 @@ different runtime suited to its math.
current state; they don't trigger computation. current state; they don't trigger computation.
- **L2 (C5):** every prediction output includes **explicit upper and lower bounds** — no - **L2 (C5):** every prediction output includes **explicit upper and lower bounds** — no
unbounded point estimates. Uncertainty is a first-class value, not an afterthought. unbounded point estimates. Uncertainty is a first-class value, not an afterthought.
- **L3 (C5):** sims advance at a **minimum speed of 360:1** — 360 simulated seconds per 1 - **L3 (C5):** all sims are **tick-advanced and continuous** — they advance every tick, never
wall-clock second. Sims may run faster but never slower. This ensures predictions stay skip. The slowest system runs at **360:1** — 1 wall-clock second = 1 simulated hour. Sims
ahead of real-time market state across all horizons. may run faster but never slower.
- **L4 (C4):** sims are **read-only from traders' perspective** — a query never mutates sim - **L4 (C4):** sims are **read-only from traders' perspective** — a query never mutates sim
state. Calibration happens only from Data Feeds (M2). state. Calibration happens only from Data Feeds (M2).
- **L5 (C4):** each sim type is **independent** — failure in one sim does not cascade to others. - **L5 (C4):** each sim type is **independent** — failure in one sim does not cascade to others.

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@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ invariant calculations (Solidity-equivalent precision). Python, Rust, or Julia.
time_horizon: "7d", sim_type: "amm_liquidity" }` — projected impermanent loss for ETH/USDC pool. time_horizon: "7d", sim_type: "amm_liquidity" }` — projected impermanent loss for ETH/USDC pool.
Example: `{ value: 0.082, lower_bound: 0.041, upper_bound: 0.127, confidence: 0.85, Example: `{ value: 0.082, lower_bound: 0.041, upper_bound: 0.127, confidence: 0.85,
time_horizon: "30d", sim_type: "amm_liquidity" }` — net LP return (fees IL). time_horizon: "30d", sim_type: "amm_liquidity" }` — net LP return (fees IL).
- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): - **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)):
| Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence |
|---------|---------------|----------------| |---------|---------------|----------------|
| Tickhourly | Slippage curves, invariant state, JIT liquidity | Every swap event | | Tickhourly | Slippage curves, invariant state, JIT liquidity | Every swap event |

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@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ and bilevel optimization (DSMFG). Python, Rust, or Julia.
- Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub. - Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub.
- **Output bounds:** extraction probability ranges, gas cost intervals, cross-chain profit - **Output bounds:** extraction probability ranges, gas cost intervals, cross-chain profit
bounds, DSMFG equilibrium stability ranges. bounds, DSMFG equilibrium stability ranges.
- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): - **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)):
| Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence |
|---------|---------------|----------------| |---------|---------------|----------------|
| Tickhourly | PGA auctions, sandwich detection, cross-chain arb | Every block | | Tickhourly | PGA auctions, sandwich detection, cross-chain arb | Every block |
@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ under gas limit. Sandwich: known sandwich-vulnerable trade flagged; non-vulnerab
Cross-chain: inventory path preferred when latency advantage exceeds capital cost. DSMFG: leader Cross-chain: inventory path preferred when latency advantage exceeds capital cost. DSMFG: leader
policy converges to fixed point with follower equilibrium. Kolokoltsov: WENO captures shock policy converges to fixed point with follower equilibrium. Kolokoltsov: WENO captures shock
discontinuities in adversarial strategy distribution. Bounds: all outputs bounded. Pre-trade: discontinuities in adversarial strategy distribution. Bounds: all outputs bounded. Pre-trade:
query does not submit any transaction. Speed: sim advances ≥ 360:1. query does not submit any transaction. Speed: sim tick-advances ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim).
## 10. Open items ## 10. Open items
- Mempool data access (public mempool? private order flow?). - Mempool data access (public mempool? private order flow?).

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@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ burns, inflation), lending protocol dynamics, DeFi systemic risk, and stock-flow
stochastic differential equations (SDEs), state-space models, kinked interest rate curves, and stochastic differential equations (SDEs), state-space models, kinked interest rate curves, and
inter-protocol credit exposure networks. Pops here are **aggregate behavioral cohorts** inter-protocol credit exposure networks. Pops here are **aggregate behavioral cohorts**
(miners/validators, holders, speculators, protocol treasuries, borrowers/lenders) whose collective (miners/validators, holders, speculators, protocol treasuries, borrowers/lenders) whose collective
behavior drives token-level dynamics across **six concurrent time horizons** at ≥ 360:1 speed. behavior drives token-level dynamics across **six concurrent time horizons** at tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim).
Grounded in Vienna complex-systems token modeling [7], ResearchGate engineering token economy Grounded in Vienna complex-systems token modeling [7], ResearchGate engineering token economy
frameworks [6], Aave/Compound kinked interest rate models (industry standard), and DeXposure frameworks [6], Aave/Compound kinked interest rate models (industry standard), and DeXposure
@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ Julia (DifferentialEquations.jl), Python (scipy), or Octave.
## 5. Interface contract ## 5. Interface contract
- Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub. - Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub.
- **Output bounds:** SDE confidence bands, utilization rate ranges, contagion impact intervals. - **Output bounds:** SDE confidence bands, utilization rate ranges, contagion impact intervals.
- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): - **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)):
| Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence |
|---------|---------------|----------------| |---------|---------------|----------------|
| Hourly | Lending rates, utilization, liquidation risk | Every block | | Hourly | Lending rates, utilization, liquidation risk | Every block |
@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ Lending: rate curve exhibits kink at $U_{\text{opt}}$; liquidation cascades trig
collateral ratio breached. DeXposure: shock to protocol A propagates to protocol B through shared collateral ratio breached. DeXposure: shock to protocol A propagates to protocol B through shared
collateral; isolated protocols unaffected. Yield: optimizer rebalances toward highest risk-adjusted collateral; isolated protocols unaffected. Yield: optimizer rebalances toward highest risk-adjusted
APY. Calibration: state estimate converges to observed data. Bounds: SDE confidence bands cover APY. Calibration: state estimate converges to observed data. Bounds: SDE confidence bands cover
realized paths on backtest. Speed: sim advances ≥ 360:1. realized paths on backtest. Speed: sim tick-advances ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim).
## 10. Open items ## 10. Open items
- Which tokens to model initially (ETH? BTC? a specific alt?). - Which tokens to model initially (ETH? BTC? a specific alt?).

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@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ computation. Python, Julia, or R.
$-\partial_t u + H(x, \nabla u) = F(x, m)$, $\partial_t m - \nabla \cdot (m \nabla_p H) = 0$ $-\partial_t u + H(x, \nabla u) = F(x, m)$, $\partial_t m - \nabla \cdot (m \nabla_p H) = 0$
— captures emergent staking coordination without enumerating every validator; predict slashing — captures emergent staking coordination without enumerating every validator; predict slashing
risk, validator set stability, and staking yield across **six concurrent time horizons** at risk, validator set stability, and staking yield across **six concurrent time horizons** at
≥ 360:1 speed; produce bounded predictions on consensus health and staking returns. tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim); produce bounded predictions on consensus health and staking returns.
- **Does-not:** validate blocks (this is a simulator); model AMM pools (M3c); model token supply - **Does-not:** validate blocks (this is a simulator); model AMM pools (M3c); model token supply
(M3e — but consumes staking ratio from M3e as input). (M3e — but consumes staking ratio from M3e as input).
@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ computation. Python, Julia, or R.
equilibrium. equilibrium.
Example: `{ value: 4.2, lower_bound: 3.6, upper_bound: 5.1, confidence: 0.82, Example: `{ value: 4.2, lower_bound: 3.6, upper_bound: 5.1, confidence: 0.82,
time_horizon: "30d", sim_type: "consensus_staking" }` — annualized staking yield (%). time_horizon: "30d", sim_type: "consensus_staking" }` — annualized staking yield (%).
- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): - **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)):
| Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence |
|---------|---------------|----------------| |---------|---------------|----------------|
| Hourly | Markov chain validator state transitions | Every epoch | | Hourly | Markov chain validator state transitions | Every epoch |

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@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ optimal execution, and cross-exchange arbitrage** at the fastest time scales. Po
**Almgren-Chriss optimal execution framework** for minimizing market impact of large orders. **Almgren-Chriss optimal execution framework** for minimizing market impact of large orders.
Operates at the highest temporal resolution — where M3a provides statistical forecasts and M3c Operates at the highest temporal resolution — where M3a provides statistical forecasts and M3c
models pool mechanics, M3g models the *plumbing* of how orders actually execute, across **six models pool mechanics, M3g models the *plumbing* of how orders actually execute, across **six
concurrent time horizons** at ≥ 360:1 speed. concurrent time horizons** at tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim).
## 2. Status / certainty ## 2. Status / certainty
DESIGN-FIRST · ABSENT. Order-book microstructure theory C4 (established). Almgren-Chriss DESIGN-FIRST · ABSENT. Order-book microstructure theory C4 (established). Almgren-Chriss
@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Python with optimized event loop.
## 5. Interface contract ## 5. Interface contract
- Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub. - Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub.
- **Output bounds:** execution cost ranges, liquidity intervals, optimal trajectory envelopes. - **Output bounds:** execution cost ranges, liquidity intervals, optimal trajectory envelopes.
- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): - **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)):
| Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence |
|---------|---------------|----------------| |---------|---------------|----------------|
| Tickhourly | Almgren-Chriss execution, slippage, spread, arb decay | Every tick | | Tickhourly | Almgren-Chriss execution, slippage, spread, arb decay | Every tick |
@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ Slippage: larger orders produce greater slippage. Spread: spread widens under ad
Almgren-Chriss: optimal trajectory minimizes total cost vs. naive execution on backtest; impact Almgren-Chriss: optimal trajectory minimizes total cost vs. naive execution on backtest; impact
parameters update when market conditions change. Arb decay: detected arb opportunity closes over parameters update when market conditions change. Arb decay: detected arb opportunity closes over
time. Depth: depth profile matches order book state. Bounds: all outputs bounded. Resolution: time. Depth: depth profile matches order book state. Bounds: all outputs bounded. Resolution:
predictions update at tick frequency. Speed: sim advances ≥ 360:1. predictions update at tick frequency. Speed: sim tick-advances ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim).
## 10. Open items ## 10. Open items
- CEX order book data access (API limitations, costs). - CEX order book data access (API limitations, costs).