From b196e4545895f2f5ef1dec138f6c4d3c0360e1a3 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Claude Date: Mon, 13 Jul 2026 21:52:23 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] Fix 360:1 semantics: tick-advanced continuous, 1s wall = 1h sim All sims advance every tick continuously. The 360:1 floor means the slowest system produces 1 simulated hour per 1 wall-clock second. Updated hub cadence table and all sub-spec references. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 --- core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md | 36 +++++++++---------- core/docs/plans/M3c-amm-liquidity-sims.md | 2 +- core/docs/plans/M3d-mev-adversarial-sims.md | 4 +-- core/docs/plans/M3e-tokenomics-macro-sims.md | 6 ++-- core/docs/plans/M3f-consensus-staking-sims.md | 4 +-- .../plans/M3g-market-microstructure-sims.md | 6 ++-- 6 files changed, 29 insertions(+), 29 deletions(-) diff --git a/core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md b/core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md index 2dc7ce3..665def9 100644 --- a/core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md +++ b/core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md @@ -20,23 +20,23 @@ simulation cores. A query facade accessible to Traders. Each sim type (M3a–M3g different runtime suited to its math. ## 4. Does / does-not -- **Does:** run continuously at **≥ 360:1 speed** (360 simulated seconds per wall-clock second) +- **Does:** tick-advance continuously at **≥ 360:1** (1 wall-second = 1 sim-hour minimum) across **six concurrent time horizons** — tick/hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and - 5-year forecast windows; maintain populations of Pops whose behaviors emerge from the sim's - mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2) for calibration; respond to Trader - queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with **explicit upper/lower bounds** on - every prediction value. - | Horizon | Window | Sim cadence at 360:1 | - |---------|--------|---------------------| - | Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | Real-time (360 sim-sec/s) | - | Daily | Next 24h | 4 sim-minutes per wall-second | - | Weekly | Next 7d | ~28 sim-minutes per wall-second | - | Monthly | Next 30d | ~2 sim-hours per wall-second | - | Annual | Next 365d | ~1 sim-day per wall-second | - | 5-year | Next 1825d | ~5 sim-days per wall-second | + 5-year forecast windows; every tick advances every sim; maintain populations of Pops whose + behaviors emerge from the sim's mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2) + for calibration; respond to Trader queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with + **explicit upper/lower bounds** on every prediction value. + | Horizon | Window | At 360:1 floor (1s wall = 1h sim) | + |---------|--------|-----------------------------------| + | Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | Covered in <1s wall time | + | Daily | Next 24h | Covered in 24s wall time | + | Weekly | Next 7d | Covered in ~168s wall time | + | Monthly | Next 30d | Covered in ~720s wall time | + | Annual | Next 365d | Covered in ~2.4h wall time | + | 5-year | Next 1825d | Covered in ~12h wall time | - **Does-not:** trade (Traders/Marketplace do); make decisions for traders (it informs, they - decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); run slower - than 360:1. + decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); skip ticks; + run slower than 360:1. ## 5. Interface contract - `query(sim_type: SimType, query: PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction`. @@ -60,9 +60,9 @@ different runtime suited to its math. current state; they don't trigger computation. - **L2 (C5):** every prediction output includes **explicit upper and lower bounds** — no unbounded point estimates. Uncertainty is a first-class value, not an afterthought. -- **L3 (C5):** sims advance at a **minimum speed of 360:1** — 360 simulated seconds per 1 - wall-clock second. Sims may run faster but never slower. This ensures predictions stay - ahead of real-time market state across all horizons. +- **L3 (C5):** all sims are **tick-advanced and continuous** — they advance every tick, never + skip. The slowest system runs at **360:1** — 1 wall-clock second = 1 simulated hour. Sims + may run faster but never slower. - **L4 (C4):** sims are **read-only from traders' perspective** — a query never mutates sim state. Calibration happens only from Data Feeds (M2). - **L5 (C4):** each sim type is **independent** — failure in one sim does not cascade to others. diff --git a/core/docs/plans/M3c-amm-liquidity-sims.md b/core/docs/plans/M3c-amm-liquidity-sims.md index 422cc4b..e64d46e 100644 --- a/core/docs/plans/M3c-amm-liquidity-sims.md +++ b/core/docs/plans/M3c-amm-liquidity-sims.md @@ -31,7 +31,7 @@ invariant calculations (Solidity-equivalent precision). Python, Rust, or Julia. time_horizon: "7d", sim_type: "amm_liquidity" }` — projected impermanent loss for ETH/USDC pool. Example: `{ value: 0.082, lower_bound: 0.041, upper_bound: 0.127, confidence: 0.85, time_horizon: "30d", sim_type: "amm_liquidity" }` — net LP return (fees − IL). -- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): +- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)): | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | |---------|---------------|----------------| | Tick–hourly | Slippage curves, invariant state, JIT liquidity | Every swap event | diff --git a/core/docs/plans/M3d-mev-adversarial-sims.md b/core/docs/plans/M3d-mev-adversarial-sims.md index 18ec3fa..f5db7e5 100644 --- a/core/docs/plans/M3d-mev-adversarial-sims.md +++ b/core/docs/plans/M3d-mev-adversarial-sims.md @@ -47,7 +47,7 @@ and bilevel optimization (DSMFG). Python, Rust, or Julia. - Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub. - **Output bounds:** extraction probability ranges, gas cost intervals, cross-chain profit bounds, DSMFG equilibrium stability ranges. -- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): +- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)): | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | |---------|---------------|----------------| | Tick–hourly | PGA auctions, sandwich detection, cross-chain arb | Every block | @@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ under gas limit. Sandwich: known sandwich-vulnerable trade flagged; non-vulnerab Cross-chain: inventory path preferred when latency advantage exceeds capital cost. DSMFG: leader policy converges to fixed point with follower equilibrium. Kolokoltsov: WENO captures shock discontinuities in adversarial strategy distribution. Bounds: all outputs bounded. Pre-trade: -query does not submit any transaction. Speed: sim advances ≥ 360:1. +query does not submit any transaction. Speed: sim tick-advances ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim). ## 10. Open items - Mempool data access (public mempool? private order flow?). diff --git a/core/docs/plans/M3e-tokenomics-macro-sims.md b/core/docs/plans/M3e-tokenomics-macro-sims.md index 61bee9f..e2cdf4d 100644 --- a/core/docs/plans/M3e-tokenomics-macro-sims.md +++ b/core/docs/plans/M3e-tokenomics-macro-sims.md @@ -6,7 +6,7 @@ burns, inflation), lending protocol dynamics, DeFi systemic risk, and stock-flow stochastic differential equations (SDEs), state-space models, kinked interest rate curves, and inter-protocol credit exposure networks. Pops here are **aggregate behavioral cohorts** (miners/validators, holders, speculators, protocol treasuries, borrowers/lenders) whose collective -behavior drives token-level dynamics across **six concurrent time horizons** at ≥ 360:1 speed. +behavior drives token-level dynamics across **six concurrent time horizons** at tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim). Grounded in Vienna complex-systems token modeling [7], ResearchGate engineering token economy frameworks [6], Aave/Compound kinked interest rate models (industry standard), and DeXposure @@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ Julia (DifferentialEquations.jl), Python (scipy), or Octave. ## 5. Interface contract - Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub. - **Output bounds:** SDE confidence bands, utilization rate ranges, contagion impact intervals. -- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): +- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)): | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | |---------|---------------|----------------| | Hourly | Lending rates, utilization, liquidation risk | Every block | @@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ Lending: rate curve exhibits kink at $U_{\text{opt}}$; liquidation cascades trig collateral ratio breached. DeXposure: shock to protocol A propagates to protocol B through shared collateral; isolated protocols unaffected. Yield: optimizer rebalances toward highest risk-adjusted APY. Calibration: state estimate converges to observed data. Bounds: SDE confidence bands cover -realized paths on backtest. Speed: sim advances ≥ 360:1. +realized paths on backtest. Speed: sim tick-advances ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim). ## 10. Open items - Which tokens to model initially (ETH? BTC? a specific alt?). diff --git a/core/docs/plans/M3f-consensus-staking-sims.md b/core/docs/plans/M3f-consensus-staking-sims.md index 6e61d61..1dd8b56 100644 --- a/core/docs/plans/M3f-consensus-staking-sims.md +++ b/core/docs/plans/M3f-consensus-staking-sims.md @@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ computation. Python, Julia, or R. $-\partial_t u + H(x, \nabla u) = F(x, m)$, $\partial_t m - \nabla \cdot (m \nabla_p H) = 0$ — captures emergent staking coordination without enumerating every validator; predict slashing risk, validator set stability, and staking yield across **six concurrent time horizons** at - ≥ 360:1 speed; produce bounded predictions on consensus health and staking returns. + tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim); produce bounded predictions on consensus health and staking returns. - **Does-not:** validate blocks (this is a simulator); model AMM pools (M3c); model token supply (M3e — but consumes staking ratio from M3e as input). @@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ computation. Python, Julia, or R. equilibrium. Example: `{ value: 4.2, lower_bound: 3.6, upper_bound: 5.1, confidence: 0.82, time_horizon: "30d", sim_type: "consensus_staking" }` — annualized staking yield (%). -- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): +- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)): | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | |---------|---------------|----------------| | Hourly | Markov chain validator state transitions | Every epoch | diff --git a/core/docs/plans/M3g-market-microstructure-sims.md b/core/docs/plans/M3g-market-microstructure-sims.md index 4d82e17..5549bdb 100644 --- a/core/docs/plans/M3g-market-microstructure-sims.md +++ b/core/docs/plans/M3g-market-microstructure-sims.md @@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ optimal execution, and cross-exchange arbitrage** at the fastest time scales. Po **Almgren-Chriss optimal execution framework** for minimizing market impact of large orders. Operates at the highest temporal resolution — where M3a provides statistical forecasts and M3c models pool mechanics, M3g models the *plumbing* of how orders actually execute, across **six -concurrent time horizons** at ≥ 360:1 speed. +concurrent time horizons** at tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim). ## 2. Status / certainty DESIGN-FIRST · ABSENT. Order-book microstructure theory C4 (established). Almgren-Chriss @@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Python with optimized event loop. ## 5. Interface contract - Implements `query(PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction` per M3 hub. - **Output bounds:** execution cost ranges, liquidity intervals, optimal trajectory envelopes. -- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, ≥ 360:1 speed): +- **Time-horizon mapping** (all run concurrently, tick-advanced, ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim)): | Horizon | Primary models | Update cadence | |---------|---------------|----------------| | Tick–hourly | Almgren-Chriss execution, slippage, spread, arb decay | Every tick | @@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ Slippage: larger orders produce greater slippage. Spread: spread widens under ad Almgren-Chriss: optimal trajectory minimizes total cost vs. naive execution on backtest; impact parameters update when market conditions change. Arb decay: detected arb opportunity closes over time. Depth: depth profile matches order book state. Bounds: all outputs bounded. Resolution: -predictions update at tick frequency. Speed: sim advances ≥ 360:1. +predictions update at tick frequency. Speed: sim tick-advances ≥ 360:1 (1s wall = 1h sim). ## 10. Open items - CEX order book data access (API limitations, costs).