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Set sim speed to 90:1 (1s wall = 90s sim) across all specs

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Grounded ratio based on ABIDES/ECMWF benchmarks. Single global clock
shared by all horizons. Wall time for full window: hourly ~40s,
daily ~16min, weekly ~1.9hr, monthly ~8.3hr, annual ~4.2d, 5yr ~20.8d.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Claude
2026-07-13 23:18:24 +00:00
parent e40210f570
commit ab086e422b
6 changed files with 23 additions and 25 deletions
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core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md
+12 -14
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@@ -20,23 +20,23 @@ simulation cores. A query facade accessible to Traders. Each sim type (M3a–M3g
different runtime suited to its math.
## 4. Does / does-not
- **Does:** tick-advance continuously at **≥ 360:1** (1 wall-second = 1 sim-hour minimum)
- **Does:** tick-advance continuously at **90:1** (1 wall-second = 90 simulated seconds)
across **six concurrent time horizons** — tick/hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, annual, and
5-year forecast windows; every tick advances every sim; maintain populations of Pops whose
behaviors emerge from the sim's mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2)
for calibration; respond to Trader queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with
**explicit upper/lower bounds** on every prediction value.
| Horizon | Window | Speed (1s wall =) | Ratio | Wall time for window |
|---------|--------|-------------------|-------|---------------------|
| Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | 1h sim | 3,600:1 | <1s |
| Daily | Next 24h | 1d sim | 86,400:1 | 1s |
| Weekly | Next 7d | 1w sim | 604,800:1 | 1s |
| Monthly | Next 30d | 1d sim | 86,400:1 | 30s |
| Annual | Next 365d | 1w sim | 604,800:1 | ~52s |
| 5-year | Next 1825d | 1mo sim | 2,592,000:1 | ~60s |
| Horizon | Window | Wall time for window |
|---------|--------|---------------------|
| Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | ~40s |
| Daily | Next 24h | ~16 min |
| Weekly | Next 7d | ~1.9 hr |
| Monthly | Next 30d | ~8.3 hr |
| Annual | Next 365d | ~4.2 days |
| 5-year | Next 1825d | ~20.8 days |
- **Does-not:** trade (Traders/Marketplace do); make decisions for traders (it informs, they
decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); skip ticks;
run slower than 360:1.
run slower than 90:1.
## 5. Interface contract
- `query(sim_type: SimType, query: PredictionQuery) -> BoundedPrediction`.
@@ -61,10 +61,8 @@ different runtime suited to its math.
- **L2 (C5):** every prediction output includes **explicit upper and lower bounds** — no
unbounded point estimates. Uncertainty is a first-class value, not an afterthought.
- **L3 (C5):** all sims are **tick-advanced and continuous** — they advance every tick, never
skip. Each time horizon runs at its own rated speed (see §4 table). Hourly through weekly
cover their full window in ≤ 1 wall-second; monthly through 5-year dial down to coarser
ticks (daily/weekly/monthly steps) and take 30–60 wall-seconds for a full window pass.
No horizon may run slower than its rated speed.
skip. Global sim speed: **1 wall-second = 90 simulated seconds** (90:1). All horizons share
this clock. No sim may run slower than 90:1.
- **L4 (C4):** sims are **read-only from traders' perspective** — a query never mutates sim
state. Calibration happens only from Data Feeds (M2).
- **L5 (C4):** each sim type is **independent** — failure in one sim does not cascade to others.