diff --git a/core/docs/plans/M3b-sociological-sims.md b/core/docs/plans/M3b-sociological-sims.md index 8c7e1d0..7867b6f 100644 --- a/core/docs/plans/M3b-sociological-sims.md +++ b/core/docs/plans/M3b-sociological-sims.md @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ solvers C3). Crypto pump-and-dump ABM C3 (3-agent protocol validated on historic Pop behavioral models C1. ## 3. Language & location -TBD · `src/economy/sims/sociological/`. **Prolog** — game-theoretic equilibria, replicator +ECLiPSe Prolog · `src/economy/sims/sociological/`. **Prolog** — game-theoretic equilibria, replicator dynamics, and strategy evolution are naturally expressed as logical relations over population states; Nash equilibrium search is constraint satisfaction. Needs efficient population iteration, strategy mutation, PDE solvers for MFG (HJB + Fokker-Planck), and bandit algorithms @@ -81,12 +81,12 @@ strategy mutation, PDE solvers for MFG (HJB + Fokker-Planck), and bandit algorit - M3 Sims hub — lifecycle management; *stub:* manual init. ## 7. Invariants / laws -- **L1 (C5):** pops are **archetypes, not individuals** — no attempt to model or track real - market participants. The sim models emergent behavior from strategy populations. +- **L1 (C5):** pops are **archetypal individuals, not literao living persons** — no attempt to model or track real + market participants. The sim models emergent behavior from abstracted populations. - **L2 (C5):** strategies **evolve** — the population distribution shifts over time via replicator dynamics. No fixed strategy ratios. -- **L3 (C4):** bounded rationality is the **default** — pops satisfice with heuristics, not - optimize with perfect information. Rational-agent models are a special case, not the baseline. +- **L3 (C4):** rationality is ***NOT*** the **default** — pops satisfice with heuristics, not + optimize with perfect information. Rational-agent models are an **abnormal** case, not the baseline. - **L4 (C4):** **complex contagion requires multiple exposures** — adoption is non-linear in neighbor count, not simple diffusion. Single-exposure models undercount threshold effects. - **L5 (C4):** the MFG limit is **valid only for large populations** — below ~100 pops, use @@ -95,7 +95,8 @@ strategy mutation, PDE solvers for MFG (HJB + Fokker-Planck), and bandit algorit promote → distribute → collapse) has distinct statistical signatures in volume and price. ## 8. Build steps -1. Define pop archetypes and their heuristic strategies. +0. Get ECLiPSe tool chain installed and operational. +1. Define pop archetypes and their various strategies. 2. Implement replicator dynamics (strategy evolution over generations). 3. Implement Hegselmann-Krause bounded confidence opinion model. 4. Implement complex contagion with heterogeneous thresholds. @@ -103,7 +104,7 @@ strategy mutation, PDE solvers for MFG (HJB + Fokker-Planck), and bandit algorit 6. Implement MFG solver (HJB + Fokker-Planck with Newton iteration). 7. Implement pump-and-dump 3-type ABM (Normal, MA, MP) with 4-phase protocol. 8. Wire M2 news/price data → calibration of pop parameters. -9. Implement multi-horizon `BoundedPrediction` output. +9. Implement multi-horizon `BoundedPrediction` outputs. ## 9. Tests Evolution: dominant strategy shifts when payoff landscape changes. Cascade: sentiment shock @@ -117,7 +118,7 @@ include upper/lower. ## 10. Open items - Pop archetype catalog (which behavioral types? how many?). - Network topology for sentiment contagion (small-world? scale-free?). -- Calibration from real market data — how to infer pop distribution from observable price action. -- MFG tensor-train rank $r$ (accuracy vs. compute tradeoff). -- Hegselmann-Krause confidence bound $d$ — fixed or adaptive? -- Cross-sim interaction: do sociological predictions feed into M3c (AMM) or M3d (MEV)? +- Calibration from real market data — how to infer pop distribution from observable price action. >>>We actually use blogs, reddit, and social networks to infer pops<<< +- MFG tensor-train rank $r$ (>>>accuracy<<< vs. compute tradeoff). +- Hegselmann-Krause confidence bound $d$ — fixed or >>>adaptive<<