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Fix sim speed model: 90:1 base, coarser ticks for longer horizons

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90:1 (1s wall = 90s sim) is the finest tick resolution. Longer
horizons use coarser time steps (1min, 10min, 1hr, 6hr, 1day)
so they cover their full window in seconds, not hours/days.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Claude 2026-07-13 23:20:41 +00:00
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core/docs/plans/M3-sims-hub.md
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@ -26,14 +26,14 @@ different runtime suited to its math.
behaviors emerge from the sim's mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2) behaviors emerge from the sim's mathematical model; ingest live data from Data Feeds (M2)
for calibration; respond to Trader queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with for calibration; respond to Trader queries with bounded predictions; produce outputs with
**explicit upper/lower bounds** on every prediction value. **explicit upper/lower bounds** on every prediction value.
| Horizon | Window | Wall time for window | | Horizon | Window | Tick step | Effective ratio | Wall time for window |
|---------|--------|---------------------| |---------|--------|-----------|-----------------|---------------------|
| Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | ~40s | | Tick–hourly | Next 1–60 min | 1s | 90:1 | ~40s |
| Daily | Next 24h | ~16 min | | Daily | Next 24h | 1 min | 5,400:1 | ~16s |
| Weekly | Next 7d | ~1.9 hr | | Weekly | Next 7d | 10 min | 54,000:1 | ~11s |
| Monthly | Next 30d | ~8.3 hr | | Monthly | Next 30d | 1 hr | 324,000:1 | ~8s |
| Annual | Next 365d | ~4.2 days | | Annual | Next 365d | 6 hr | 1,944,000:1 | ~16s |
| 5-year | Next 1825d | ~20.8 days | | 5-year | Next 1825d | 1 day | 7,776,000:1 | ~20s |
- **Does-not:** trade (Traders/Marketplace do); make decisions for traders (it informs, they - **Does-not:** trade (Traders/Marketplace do); make decisions for traders (it informs, they
decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); skip ticks; decide); enforce laws (Marketplace does); supervise behavior (Conductor/SAE do); skip ticks;
run slower than 90:1. run slower than 90:1.
@ -61,8 +61,9 @@ different runtime suited to its math.
- **L2 (C5):** every prediction output includes **explicit upper and lower bounds** — no - **L2 (C5):** every prediction output includes **explicit upper and lower bounds** — no
unbounded point estimates. Uncertainty is a first-class value, not an afterthought. unbounded point estimates. Uncertainty is a first-class value, not an afterthought.
- **L3 (C5):** all sims are **tick-advanced and continuous** — they advance every tick, never - **L3 (C5):** all sims are **tick-advanced and continuous** — they advance every tick, never
skip. Global sim speed: **1 wall-second = 90 simulated seconds** (90:1). All horizons share skip. Base speed **90:1** (1 wall-second = 90 sim-seconds) at the finest tick resolution.
this clock. No sim may run slower than 90:1. Longer horizons use **coarser ticks** (larger time steps) so they cover proportionally more
sim-time per wall-second. 90:1 is the floor; no horizon runs slower.
- **L4 (C4):** sims are **read-only from traders' perspective** — a query never mutates sim - **L4 (C4):** sims are **read-only from traders' perspective** — a query never mutates sim
state. Calibration happens only from Data Feeds (M2). state. Calibration happens only from Data Feeds (M2).
- **L5 (C4):** each sim type is **independent** — failure in one sim does not cascade to others. - **L5 (C4):** each sim type is **independent** — failure in one sim does not cascade to others.